How to stop being surprised by extreme weather - study

Helping communities predict extreme weather events that have never been recorded in modern history is the focus of a new study published in .

A team from the Climate Adaptation Services Foundation, the 色狗导航 and other international institutions has brought together methods to see beyond the limitations of conventional weather records, which typically only cover the last century.

The study reveals how, for example, nature's own archives - like tree rings - combined with forgotten historical documents can unlock centuries of climate data that modern instruments have missed.

Lead author Timo Kelder said: "We've been limited by thinking extreme weather is only as bad as what we've measured since weather stations were invented. But our research shows we can use weather models to look back hundreds or even thousands of years to discover what's truly possible in our climate system."

A toolkit for scientists and practitioners

The researchers identified four approaches that together create a more complete picture of possible extreme weather:

鈼� Analysing conventional records

鈼� Studying historical and natural archives like tree rings

鈼� Creating "what-if" scenarios based on past events

鈼� Using climate models to simulate physically possible extremes

Tree rings proved especially valuable, with each ring preserving a year's worth of climate history. Researchers used these natural time capsules to reconstruct 850 years of drought patterns in northwestern China, revealing extreme events that would have been invisible in modern records.

The team also highlighted forgotten weather extremes by digging through historical archives. They found that June 1846 in Durham, UK was significantly hotter than any modern June temperature. Similarly, September 1774 in Oxford was wetter than any month recorded in the 250 years since.

Adapt, adapt, adapt

The study emphasises that with these methods to anticipate the unseen, communities can better prepare for unprecedented weather. The methods can support three layers of preparation:

鈼� Improved early warning systems

鈼� Upgraded infrastructure

鈼� Transformative social changes to reduce vulnerability

The researchers conclude that by breaking free from the constraints of limited modern records, we can finally stop being surprised by "unprecedented" weather events.

Dorothy Heinrich, co-author at the 色狗导航, said : “Unprecedented weather doesn't just break records—it breaks communities, infrastructure, and lives. When the unimaginable happens, being unprepared is a disaster waiting to unfold. But science can help us to imagine the unimaginable, to uncover these risks, and prepare. Our future depends on how quickly and thoroughly we adapt today."

View an accompanying video for the study via Vimeo: .

Kelder, T., Heinrich, D., Klok, L., Thompson, V., Goulart, H. M., Hawkins, E., Slater, L. J., Wilby, R. L., Stephens, E. M., Burt, S., De Vries, H., Schipper, E. L., Carmona Baéz, A., Van Bueren, E., & Fischer, E. M. (2025). How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather. Nature Communications, 16(1), 1-15.